Gas prices to fall, but don't expect a big drop

http://money.cnn.com/2011/08/30/markets/gas-prices/index.htm

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- The price of U.S. oil has dropped nearly 25% since hitting its highs this spring, yet gasoline is down just 10%. So a big drop should be coming, right?

Sorta. Drivers can expect a bit of relief at the pump over the next few months, but they shouldn't look for too big a discount.

Many Americans have become conditioned to expect a sharp drop in gasoline prices in the fall as Labor Day, the traditional end to the summer driving season, approaches and as the nation shifts to less expensive "winter gas." Because cooler air is less conducive to smog formation, "winter gas" doesn't need to be refined as much.

Also adding downward pressure to prices: Hurricane Irene wasn't as bad as feared, the hostilities in Libya appear to be winding down, the dollar is gaining, and the economy is stuck in the doldrums.

On Tuesday, oil was trading at about $87 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

But analysts are urging caution.

They say that the lower oil prices seen in the United States recently don't really reflect the actual price of oil in the global market, which is tracking closer to London's more expensive Brent crude. Plus, demand from the developing world remains strong.

Gas spending and prices by state
But now most of the oil used to make gasoline in the U.S. -- from places like Alaska, Louisiana, or Nigeria -- is pegged to the price of the more expensive London benchmark, known as Brent.

That's because there's a problem in Cushing.

Over the past several months oil production from North Dakotas' Bakken Shale, Canada's oil sands and other places in the middle of the continent has been on the rise.

Lots of that oil gets sent to Cushing, but there's been no new pipeline built out of Cushing to accommodate the new supply. So now that oil is stuck and there's an oversupply, which is driving down the price of U.S. oil.





WOW, a lot to add to the excuse list from one article!!



DS Gas Price Excuse Tracker for reasons that gas prices increase:

1. Winter months, heating
2. Hurricane in Gulf of Mexico
3. Manufacturing demands by industrial nations, i.e. China
4. Americans and SUVs
5. Market speculation
6. March and April "pressures on refineries"
7. Tensions in Middle East
8. A whale died in the Atlantic
9. A turtle sneezed in the Pacific
10. Global warming
11. Pollen levels
12. Jupiter's red spot
13. The dog ate it.
14. Gas prices take a while to come down because the stations are still selling what they bought at the higher prices
15. Gas prices take no time at all to skyrocket overnight, because reason #14 doesn't apply the other way around.
16. Oil up to pay for alternative resource research
17. Because OPEC says so!
18. A special summer blend is more expensive than the winter blend, as it uses special ingredients! But I thought it was higher in the winter because of the heating demands?
19. Summer vacation, kids are off! And since they all drive cars, this makes total sense! (I guess all the school buses were running on pixie dust)
20. Memorial Day weekend and Independence Day, even tho it's still May and that's in July.
21. Weak dollar causing gas prices to rise
22. Strong dollar gets it back under $80
23. Fuel supply shortage (because OPEC cut the supply in half, right?)
24. Dollar against the Euro
25. See #1 - winter heating, as it got cold in some parts of the U.S. in October, thanks to...global warming?
26. Libya. It's all about Libya
27. No it's not, says Saudi Arabia. Everything is fine. Not sure why the high prices.
28. Gas station owners raise the prices ahead of time, expecting oil prices to go up. But then that means #14 can't be true!
29. Because of the unrest in Libya, more countries are buying from Algeria and Nigeria, which is where the U.S buy its oil from!
30. Benchmark broken, price of oil not related to price at the pump.
31. Gas prices lag behind oil prices by two of weeks, putting refiners in tight spot.
32. Because Deniers refuse to tackle Global Warming.
33. Saudi cutting back oil because market is flooded w/oil, no reason for high $.
34. "Hiring spree" means more people are using gas to drive to work!
35. River flood COULD cause disruptions, so we'd better raise it just in case.
36. Greece. Since oil dropped during the Greek riots, then following the same logic - that means demand must have plummeted. Therefore, Greece is the largest importer of oil due to all that manufacturing...forget China or the U.S.
37. Any sort of clash in Egypt is totally a legitimate reason for oil price increase.
38. Hurricane Irene (or any storm in the ocean/gulf) is unexpected and will disrupt oil and cause price spikes.
*NEW*
39. Oil has dropped 25% on the market, but the price at the pump won't parallel the drop like it does with the rise, because.....Well, just because.
40. We're back to the winter gas / blend. See #18.
41. World demand is strong, ignore what Saudia Arabia and OPEC say.
42. Oil prices in the US really don't reflect the actual price in the global market. In other words, the prices we see.....ARE ARTIFICIAL NUMBERS!!!
43. Even tho Libya was a good excuse for increase, don't expect too much of a decrease when it's over.
44. The oil used to make gasoline in the U.S. is based on a London benchmark. So this is why when Wall Street oil prices go down, we don't see it at the pumps. THEN WHY WHEN WALL STREET GOES UP DO WE SEE IT AT THE PUMPS???